All eyes will be on the dollar today in the hours leading up to today’s nonfarm payroll figure. Current expectations are for 230,000 jobs added in June after recording a stunning 280,000 increase in May. Yesterday’s ADP private payroll numbers showed the economy added 237,000 jobs in the latest period, signaling a strong improvement in the prevailing trend. Early indications today are strong and consensus has the number at 234,000, however, Goldman Sachs has revised their estimates lower, pointing to a gain of 220,000 which is a number expected to hold firm through the end of 2015. The one conflict with the latest ADP figures is the fact that Challenger Job Cuts numbers released yesterday pointed to rising layoffs, driven primarily by losses in manufacturing. Although the unemployment rate is set to fall to 5.40%, this might postpone that development as the stronger US dollar hurts the export market.
ADP Suggesting Strong NFP
Analisi Giornaliera - 02/07/2015