Euro GDP Surprises

Analisi Giornaliera - 09/09/2015

Second Quarter Euro Area GDP Managed to Exceed Expectations


A surprise pickup in second quarter GDP from the Euro Area saw the region’s annualized GDP accelerate to 1.50%, above the downward revised forecasts of 1.40% for 2015. Growing risk appetite saw commodity currencies bid higher as the safe haven yields and the Euro remained weaker.

Euro Quarterly GDP Rises

The final quarterly GDP revision for the Euro Area surprised analysts yesterday, rising 0.40% for the quarter and about 1.50% for the year, beating estimates on both front and up from 0.30% and 1.20% respectively compared to the previous quarter. The uptick in the Euro Area aggregate GDP comes a week after the ECB cut its projections for 2015 GDP growth which is expected to show that the regions GDP grew at a pace of 1.40%. Projections for 2016 expects GDP growth to rise modestly to 1.70%. The Euro did not react much to the positive data as the momentum in global risk sentiment overshadowed the markets since the G20 was held in Turkey and ahead of the all important upcoming FOMC Meeting with a decision due on September 17th.


UK Manufacturing Data Due

Manufacturing production numbers from the UK are due today with expectations calling for a rise of 0.20% for the month, expanding at the same pace as the prior month. The British Pound has surged since the start of this week, recovering close to half of the losses incurred for the past two weeks as the upcoming Bank of England decision is expected to highlight shifting sentiment amongst Monetary Policy Committee voting members. While the Pound might not give too much attention to the manufacturing production data, an upside surprise could help keep the British Pound maintain its bullish momentum ahead of the Bank of England's interest rate decision tomorrow. The British Pound has rallied the most against haven assets like the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen while posting moderate gains against the US Dollar.


Bank of Canada to Meet

The Bank of Canada meets today for its monthly monetary policy. Falling commodity prices and weak global demand has kept both commodity prices pressured to the downside which could add a futher burden on the Canadian economy. However, given the previous month's surprise rally in the WTI crude oil benchmark and the fact that the monthly GDP for Canada improved, expectations show that the BoC will likely refrain from cutting interest rates during today's meeting. Last month's jobs report saw the Canadian economy add 12k jobs despite the unemployment rate rising to 7.0%. Average wage growth was also strong in the month of August which could point to a stronger than anticipated CPI print. With the BoC having delivered two rate cuts already this year, the Central Bank is expected to stay neutral at its meeting today. A continued dovish tone could compel further losses in the Canadian dollar.


Copper Equidistant Channel Technical Pattern

After months of price declines following slower demand and persistent oversupply, copper prices have staged a rebound following reports that mining giant Glencore has shuttered operations at two key mines as the market suffers a chronic glut. While this factor will not be permanent, it will allow for prices to reverse back upwards, stemming the recent decline until other producers take efforts to raise production. Copper is currently trending higher in an equidistant channel pattern exhibiting a strongly bullish bias. Ideal positions initiated near the lower channel line are targeting the upper channel line for an exit. Any move below the lower channel line should be treated as a channel-based breakout to be accompanied by renewed momentum to the downside.


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