Fitch Changes Japan's Credit Outlook Rating to Negative

Analisi Giornaliera - 14/06/2016

Fitch: Japanese Credit Rating Outlook Negative


Reduced confidence in the government's commitment to fiscal responsibility saw ratings agency Fitch maintain Japan's credit rating at 'A' but lowered its outlook to 'Negative' from 'Stable.' Fitch said that the government failed to identify any offsetting measures. Earlier in June, Japan's Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe delayed a proposed sale tax hike to October 2019 and announced plans to unveil a mini-stimulus program, but did not give any details.

For more about the unsustainable debt situation facing Japan read our article Is the Yen a SAFE Haven or a Ticking Time bomb?


Sweden's Energy Deal Likely to Push CPI Higher

On Friday, Sweden's ruling political party managed to reach an agreement with its opposition to continue with nuclear power, which it had previously agreed to phase out and freeze nuclear energy. The energy deal is aimed at securing long term energy supply to households and industries. As part of the deal, energy consumption taxes are expected to rise, which in turn could boost Sweden's CPI by 0.20% according to some estimates. Further details will be announced including the proposed energy tax hike and the time frame from when the new taxes come into effect.



Sterling Falls after Brexit Opinion Polls

New opinion polls released over the weekend saw the Brexit 'Leave' group gaining a significant lead over the 'Remain' camp. The latest opinion polls come in the backdrop of Friday's polls all of which point to an increasing majority among those wanting to leave the EU when the UK votes on June 23. The sterling fell on Monday to an 8-week low. Late Friday, ratings agency Fitch left UK's credit rating at AA+ and maintained its outlook as 'stable.' However, Fitch warned that a vote to leave the EU could result in a review of the ratings outlook. Fitch's ratings review comes just a week after a similar Standard & Poors statement.


Bundesbank’s Weidmann: No Further Policy Easing Required for Now

German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann in a scheduled press conference in Frankfurt on Monday said that the ECB needs time for its existing monetary policies to work, noting that the actions thus far have been appropriate, and dismissing calls for further intervention from the European Central Bank. Mr. Weidmann said that the definition of price stability is that the inflation rate target is achieved in the medium term, and said that this gives the central bank time to wait for the effects of the agreed monetary policy to stoke inflation. Last week, the ECB started purchasing corporate sector bonds as part of its QE policies, in addition to the regular sovereign bond purchases already installed. Interest rates in the Eurozone are zero percent with deposit rates in the negative.


US Retail Sales Expected to Slow Down

Retail sales data in the US is expected to pullback after rising at the fastest pace in a year in April. Following the gains of 1.30% on the headline and 0.80% on the core, retail sales for May is forecast to slowdown to post a 0.40% month over month gains on the core and 0.40% month over month gains on the headline. The downward forecasts come on lower than expected new-vehicle sales in the US during May, which is expected to fall more than 6% from a year ago. In April, retail sales grew with the auto, gasoline and non-store retail sectors driving growth.


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