Greenback Continues to Strengthen on Back of Strong Payrolls

Analisi Giornaliera - 09/08/2016

US Outlook Remains Optimistic After a Strong Showing From the Outset of the Third Quarter


A more positive outlook is beginning to take hold in the United States after payroll data surpassed expectations and cleared the critical threshold of 200,000 jobs added. The current payroll data signals a confident start to the third quarter and increased optimism surrounding the monetary policy outlook, with a rate hike a notion that was all but dead a week ago, back on the table.

Probability of Interest Rate Hike in 2016 Climbs But Remains Unlikely

The CME Fed Watch has increased its odds of a US rate hike in 2016 with a 38.30% chance of an increase to 0.75% by December. This is a sizable jump from the 32.00% chance of a rate hike being reported last week prior to the latest data on US payrolls. Although highly unlikely, the probability of a September rate hike has remained mostly unchanged after briefly climbing, with the chances of action currently standing at 12.00% according to futures markets, mirroring the 12.00% expected last week at this time. The Fed will meet again September 20th and 21st for its 6-week FOMC meeting to vote on whether to leave interest rates unchanged, raise them, or hint at a time frame for a future rate increase. Until then, payroll data for August will be released and depending on the direction of the data’s results, will have major implications on their decision.


Imports and Exports fail to Meet Expectations in China

The devaluation of the Chinese Yuan has taken its toll of the amount of imports for the country according to the latest trade figures released. Chinese imports fell by -12.50% on an annualized basis when compared to the prior month’s reading of -8.40%. This continues a 21-month streak that Chinese imports have experienced ongoing contraction. Chinese exports also missed forecasts even though they had improved modestly in comparison to the report from a month earlier. Chinese exports missed expectations largely due to the poor state of the global economy and worsening trade resulting from the turmoil in Europe with England voting leaving the European Union.


Swiss Inflation Better Than Forecasted

Although the Swiss annualized consumer price index came in better than expected, the measure has printed in deflationary territory for the last 20 readings, underscoring the challenges facing policymakers as they work to insulate the nation from external forces. On a monthly basis, Switzerland was expected to report the worst data in over a year with forecasts of a -0.50% contraction, while actually reporting a rate of -0.40%, beating estimates ever so slightly. USDCHF gained marginally following the reports, clocking gains of 0.19% by the closing bell.


UK Patiently Awaiting Manufacturing Production Data Set to be Released

UK manufacturing production data for June will be released by the Office for National Statics at 09:30 London time today.  Experts predict a monthly rate change of -0.20% in July from -0.50% reported during the month of June. Even if Manufacturing meets its target, a rate below 0.00% indicates a poor state of the sector and will be reflected by a sustained decline in the Pound against a wide array of currencies. The results of the manufacturing data will serve as a major indicator of the state of the UK economy considering manufacturing activity accounts for nearly 80.00% of overall UK industrial output.


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