Oil Rebound Unlikely

Analisi Giornaliera - 04/08/2015


The oil crisis is still present, shown in falling prices for the 5th consecutive week, and volatility in the commodity suggests fundamental changes in the near future.

Factors Behind Oil Drop Multiply

Main influencing factors include OPEC’s announcement that they will not cut on production, sluggish demand in China due to slow economic growth, Iranian boost in global supply, and the slow growth of international markets. Furthermore, oil and gas companies have high costs to face and have to cut expenditure on long-term projects and supply chain efficiency.


Dollar Rallies on End-of-Month Buying

A potential US interest rate increase depends on US economic data, forcing traders to be ultra-sensitive to releases of data. Such reports include the recent Q2 employment cost index that shocked the market to the downside, showing very low growth levels. This report had a knock-effect on the dollar. It is not just the labour market that affects the dollar’s credibility but inflation as well; low prices give a boost to industrial figures, helping a rise in exports. End-of-month buying was present and the dollar ended the previous sessions generally higher even though Fed rate hike expectations fell to end-of-2015. The US economy remains fairly healthy, now awaiting a rate hike in December.


EUR/USD Surges on Employment Cost Index

After a surprisingly bad Employment Cost Index report released in the US on Friday, the EURUSD pair jumped significantly. For some historical context, the report showed the lowest increase in wages in the US since it was first published 33 years ago. The pair sat in the morning above the 1.0965 level. If a move below this is seen perhaps the 1.09 level will be tested, but a move above it seen maybe 1.10 is possible. The MACD sits precariously at its resistance level and has the potential to cap it and become positive soon.


Trader Perspectives Unclear

Traders are taking wild positions across the currency board, but are staying away from oil, though precious metal volatility still hasn’t set limits on their risk appetites. Despite oil’s neutral positioning, the extent to which news and tens of factors affect oil keeps traders at bay for now. The Mexican Central Bank announced their intention to intervene in their markets with the use of monetary policy, and the MXN has experienced a snapback despite large shorts in the currency. Other currencies in major global economies stay neutral, leaving room for speculation and increased portfolio presence, especially the Yen and the Pound.


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