Pound Rebounds Against Dollar

Analisi Giornaliera - 13/10/2017

Potential Brexit Extension Lifts Sterling


The British Pound recovered from lows made earlier on Thursday against the US dollar after German newspaper Handelsblatt reported the UK could remain in the European Union for two more years. Investors bought into Sterling following the news, with the GBPUSD pair currently trading around 1.3280 in response.

Brexit Concerns Could Cap Pound Gains

In a piece published by Handelsblatt, the newspaper reported that the EU's offer is linked to the UK fulfilling all of its obligations as a member state but surrendering its voting rights. Last year’s referendum saw most British voters opt to leave the political union with Prime Minister Theresa May triggering Article 50 in March which officially began exit negotiations.

Earlier on Thursday, the Pound tumbled to as low as $1.3121 after EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, remarked that talks around the UK divorce payment had hit an impasse, increasing the likelihood of a messy departure. GBP rallied the most in four years in September after the Bank of England signalled it might be ready to hike interest rates.

Since then, the currency has pared almost half of those gains amid concern that Britain’s Brexit talks are making little progress.


Chinese Exports Remain Resilient

Just days ahead of the Communist Party Congress, China reported robust trade data during the publication overnight. In Dollar terms, exports out of the country soared 8.10% in September from a year ago, while imports rose 18.70%.

Although exports came in well below the consensus estimate of an 8.80% increase, dollar-denominated imports were projected to climb 13.50% during the same period, a figure that was easily outperformed.

Even though the September outbound shipments data missed the consensus forecast, they could have been worse when considering the most recent Yuan appreciation. According to the General Administration of Customs, the overall trade surplus came in at $28.47 billion, the lowest since March of 2017 and significantly below the August figure of $41.99 billion.

AUDJPY, which is prone to fluctuations in key Chinese economic data, is range-bound around 87.800.


Euro Area Industrial Output Grows

A sharp rise in production of capital goods boosted August industrial output in the Euro Area, boding well for growth in the monetary union during the second half of the 2017. Figures published by Eurostat on Thursday showed that output expanded by 1.40% month-over-month and 3.80% on an annualized basis. Both figures easily topped the average forecast of economists surveyed by Reuters for a 0.50% monthly rise and a 2.60% year-on-year increase.

The monthly pace of expansion was the fastest on record since November of 2016. Furthermore, July output data was revised upwards to 0.30% on the month and to 3.60% year-on-year.

The German DAX 30 equity benchmark surged above the 13,000-mark for the first time in its 30-year history during Thursday’s trading session, with December futures last seen around 12970.


Canada New Home Prices Rise Less Than Expected

Adding to signs that the country’s housing boom is continuing to cool, Canadian new home prices remained flat in August while home resale prices experienced their biggest tumble in seven years during September. Data from Statistics Canada showed prices of new homes, excluding apartments and condominiums, edged 0.10% higher in August, missing forecasts for a 0.30% rise.

Prices stayed flat in 15 out of 27 major markets, including Toronto and Vancouver. A separate report revealed resale prices of single-family homes slipped -0.80% in September, the biggest monthly decline since September of 2010. Price growth also decelerated on an annualized basis, with prices climbing by 11.40% in September compared to a year earlier versus the annualized increase of 13.10% reported in August.

CADJPY is down in Friday Asian trade, with the pair managing to hover just above strong support at 89.600.


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