Prepare for a Volatility Spike

Analisi Giornaliera - 26/09/2016

US Presidential Debate Set to Dictate This Week’s Sentiment


Investors around the globe will keep a close eye on the first of the US presidential debates between GOP nominee Donald Trump and Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton for any signs of a shift in political momentum.  Stakes are high as November approaches with financial markets only starting to gear up for a change in leadership.

Wall Street Behind Clinton

Wall Street has so far been comfortable with their assumption that Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton will win the forthcoming presidential election. They are yet to price in a potential Donald Trump victory. As such, if he manages to score a “good performance” during the Monday night debate, he could spark a rally in safe haven assets like gold, Japanese Yen and German Bunds.  Though Clinton continues to lead the polls, issues concerning the state of her health, has seen her lead narrow in past weeks. With nearly 34.00% of likely voters saying their decision will hinge on the outcome of the three presidential debates, outperformance by one candidate has the potential to impact short-term volatility and the broader trends in risk assets.


Conflicting Signals Confuse Crude

Oil tumbled 4.00% on Friday following limited signs of progress between Saudi Arabia and Iran towards reaching a preliminary agreement to freeze output. Nevertheless, prices rebounded in early Monday trade after the Algerian Energy Minister reassured investors that a production cap was still possible at this week's informal meeting of OPEC. The OPEC-Russia gathering will take place on the side lines of the International Energy Forum in Algeria on Wednesday, September 28.  "We will not come out of the meeting empty handed," Algeria’s energy minister Noureddine Bouterfa said on Sunday. Low oil price battered exporters like Algeria and Venezuela were always expected to push for a deal. But until the stalemate between heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Iran is broken, the upside in price seems capped.  West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 0.70% to $44.80 a barrel, while Brent futures jumped 0.67% percent to $46.79 a barrel.


China Toxic Loans Grossly Understated

Toxic debt in the Chinese financial system has been grossly understated in the official government estimates, a new study by Fitch Ratings has warned.  Fitch said non-performing loans as a proportion of the country's total loan pool could be as high as 20.00% and number approximately $2 trillion. By contrast, official data pegs the nonperforming loan ratio at the end of June 2016 at a mere 1.80%.  Furthermore, if inefficient credit continues to grow at the same pace as recent years, China risks a credit rating downgrade according to the international ratings agency. Fitch currently rates the country at A+ with a stable outlook.  Considering outstanding Yuan bank loans climbing by 13.00% year over year, the risks are rising, with more analysts calling for a solution to the current debt overhang.


UK Financial Sector Feels “Brexit” Heat

Optimism in the UK financial services sector is at its lowest since the global financial crisis according to a new survey released earlier in the session. A poll conducted jointly by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Confederation of British Industry showed that optimism dipped for the third straight quarter in the three months to September, marking the longest stretch of decline since the financial crisis of 2009.  Over half of the 115 financial services firms surveyed said the overall impact of Britain's


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