The emerging market crisis came back

Analisi Giornaliera - 04/09/2018

European markets seen lower 


The European stocks are probably going to open lower on Wednesday morning and that will happen the after emergency austerity measures in Argentina due to the recent turbulence in emerging markets. The FTSE 100 is seen about  6 points lower at around 7,490, the CAC is probably going to open down around 5 points at 5,409, and the DAX is probably going to start 13 points lower at 12,330. Yesterday Argentine President Mauricio Macri announced "emergency" measures in order to balance next year's budget. That includes new taxes on exports and cuts to government spending. The Argentine peso fell more than 3% lower when the news came out and probably is going to face further pressure over the following days. Now, Turkey's central bank said that it would take measures to fight "significant risks" to price stability at its next monetary policy meeting. The clue here is that we may expect an interest rate hike later this month. The lira was slightly lower on the news, adding to losses of more than 40 percent against the dollar this year.

USD/JPY: Sellers in near-term control

Price is still trading below the 100 and 200-hour moving averages since Monday. Selling is strong maintaining the short-term bearish sentiment. But the lack of escalation in world trade tensions, the buyers are now slowly losing their bullish appetite to push price higher.

The Japanese yen pushed a little higher early in the session but not too much. The lows have tested the support just under 111.00 and then bounced back higher. The pair now trades near its highs, but is still in a tight daily range and is just under the 100-hour MA 111.19 and the 200-hour MA 111.18. Now the weak momentum favors sellers but buyers have to defend any move to the downside. The lack of escalation between the US and China is helping a little as stocks are more or less in a range on the day. This is the calm before the storm as investors are awaiting the next clue to come out. NAFTA negotiations are set to resume tomorrow while there's also still the threat of the president of the United States to officially announce the $200 billion tariffs on Chinese goods later in the week.


Turkey: New reports create more tensions

Turkey wants export proceeds to be brought back within 6 months. The 80% of the proceeds must be given to a bank. Firms must also bring back proceeds from their exports within one year. In essence, this will probably lift lira. Malaysia enforced the exact same measure in order to prevent exporters from keeping large amounts of foreign currencies and not change them to the local currency instead. So, by forcing them to get back those proceeds and to convert them it is actually propping up the local currency.


Oil could surge 30%

The last time U.S. crude oil traded at $95 a barrel was in 2014. This year that could change. The opinion of the energy expert John Kilduff is that Iran sanctions are the top reason West Texas Intermediate could climb as much as 30% percent by the following winter. That could be $4 a gallon gasoline at the pumps. The Again Capital founding partner said on CNBC's "Futures Now."

"The global market is tight and it's getting tighter, and the big strangle around the market right now is what's in the process of happening with Iran and the Iran sanctions," He added: "These Iranian barrels that we're going to lose, it's really going to hurt. It's really going to make a difference and tip the scale in my view to an upside surprise." The reasons for his opinion was that the WTI crude oil exceeded $70 a barrel on Thursday, and went up to one-month highs. According to Kilduff, there's a high probability, the commodity will break $75 within weeks.


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