Tsipras in Moscow

Analisi Giornaliera - 08/04/2015

Greece Pivots Towards Russia in Deference to Heightened Pressure From European Partners


As the nation’s coffers run dry, the Greek Government is looking to prod the Troika to relax bailout restrictions by turning towards Russia after recent overtures from the embattled eastern nation. Talks of trade, tourism, and energy are likely to dominate the talks as Russia seeks a lift to sanctions while Greece looks for options as government funding evaporates.

Putin and Tsipras to Meet Today

The Greeks have assured creditors that the IMF will be repaid tomorrow in full, despite indications that the country is about to run out of cash. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is in Moscow, due to meet Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin today with the nations expected to discuss trade relations and future development. The move is widely viewed as antagonizing the EU to extract better compromises and a faster disbursement of promised bailout funds. In other news, German factory orders released this morning showed continued contraction after expectations of a 1.50% rebound, instead contracting by -0.90% after the previous months -2.60% print. This was the second consecutive month that the measure missed estimates despite the more accommodative monetary policy environment and increased export competitiveness from a weaker Euro.


API Inventories Grow the Most in 30 Years

The American Petroleum Institute reported surging crude oil stocks, with 12.2 million barrels added since the last week alone, soaring above estimates of 3.4 million barrels added. This announcement indicated the biggest addition to inventories since 1985 as excess storage capacity rapidly fills. Crude oil retreated slightly from earlier gains in the session after comments from Saudi Oil Minister Al-Naimi showed confidence that oil prices might recover in the short-term. These comments were delivered despite the fact that American inventories are nearing maximum capacity, especially with Cushing expected to be over 90% full. Once storage is completely filled, there is a strong propensity for a sustained drop in oil prices until production decreases as producers will be forced to dump output on open markets.


Japan Leaves Policies Unchanged

As was widely forecast, the Bank of Japan left monetary policies unchanged, with interest rates still at record lows. Japan intends to keep expanding the monetary base at 80 trillion yen annually, with ETF buying expected at 3 trillion Yen and real estate investment trust buying at 90 billion. In the statement, the Central Bank highlighted that the economy continues to recover at a moderate pace but that inflation is likely to miss targets as energy prices drag on the consumer price index. Also cited was the risks emanating from the global economy as doubts about the certainty of the American recovery and fears of European deflation stoke trepidation. USDJPY has largely declined since the announcement, with the pair falling back below the 120.00 handle as the dollar weighs on risk sentiment.


German DAX Ascending Triangle Technical Pattern

Boosted by the European Central Banks quantitative easing program, the German DAX 30 was one of the best performing global equity indices in the first quarter of 2015. With German fundamental data outperforming regional peers and the weaker Euro providing momentum for the export economy, the outlook remains strong despite continued headaches from Greece. There are some headwinds as evidenced by the disappointing factory orders figures this morning, but this is not enough to take the wind out of the sails. The ascending triangle pattern setting up in the index has a bullish bias with any break of resistance at 12210 paving the way to new record highs for the equity benchmark. The prevailing uptrend intact since the beginning of the year is creating the triangle consolidation, with any break of the trendline to the downside viewed as a correction and possible pullback in the instrument.


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