UK Inflation Falls Off-Pace

Analisi Giornaliera - 14/09/2016

Carney’s Inflation Concerns Supported by Late Data


The latest data from the Office of National Statistics illustrated that inflation came in below expectations for the United Kingdom, spreading doubt on Governor Carney’s latest anticipations that the Brexit and weak Sterling could reduce deflationary pressures.

Sterling Pound Raises Inflation Risks

British inflation remains stagnant in August as reported by the Office of National Statistics. Yearly values of 0.60% were not able to meet expectations of 0.70% whereas monthly data posted an incline of 0.30% with air fares and food costs leading once again the gains. The weakness of the sterling pound was expecting a surge in consumer prices after the UK referendum vote, according to Carney.


Oil Prices Back to Decline

After the agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia to form a new “task force” to follow the oil market and stabilize prices, oil has retreated from its gains - led by statements from Fed officials who still predict a hike happening sooner than anticipated. Adding to the price action is a continuing global oversupply for “black gold”. In the meantime, major producers in the Organization Petroleum Exporting Countries are at maximum pumping levels as they target market share while scheduled to meet in discussion of a possible freeze to production.


Employment Edges Higher in the EU

In the three months to June, employment in Europe has reached a new high since the financial crisis of 2008. The European Statistics Office reported second quarter values of 0.40%, surpassing expectations of 0.20% while also revising the first quarter value upwards to 0.40%. The upbeat news come a week after Gross Domestic Product values were reported to have slowed down as was also stated by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi. A healthy jobs market with employment also rising is expected to help spur growth over the bloc, a factor that lifts off some weight for the ECB in having to ease further its policies.


The Yen Weighs Heavily on Japan

Japanese industrial production declined in July, falling into negative territory as a slowdown from its major trading partner, China, and a strong Yen is keeping it from growing. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry reported a drop of -0.40%. Even if growth rates were reported earlier in the month to have picked up slightly this did not evade any mounting fears for the economic health of Japan. The ongoing deceleration puts the Bank of Japan under the spotlight as it prepares to announce its monetary policy stance next week, where most investors believe that Governor Haruhiko Kuroda may have to bring in the heavy artillery to help fight Japan’s stagnant growth and deflation values.


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